     On the book jacket, author John Naisbitt is said to be "one of the 
world's top social forecasters".  What's more, says the blurb, Naisbitt's 
first book, Megatrends, "accurately predicted 10 major patterns of change 
which would shape the world in the 1980s".
     But away from the context of book jackets and promotional blurbs, 
Naisbitt, the man, brushes side any notion that he is a modern-day prophet.
     "People think I'm talking about the future, but my books are not about 
predicting what lies ahead.  Rather I see myself as an observer of global 
trends and a teacher."
     "Not many people have the interest to see what's going on in the 
world, what are the big shifts taking place and where, and to study what 
the connections are.  It's actually hard work and painstaking research," 
he notes.
     But the returns have been worth the trouble.  Naisbitt has since 
developed the megatrends franchise into a lucrative book formula--the 
original Megatrends, written in 1982, has spawned Megatrends 2000 and 
Megatrends Women, among others.  His latest and eighth book highlights 
eight developments in Asia that will position the region as the centre of 
the world.  It's appropriately titled Mgeatrends Asia.
     Naisbitt, like many other thinkers, believes that an Asian renaissance 
is dawning.  In his book, the new Asia will be a network of nations working 
together for mutual economic gain.  The old Asia was divided by culture, 
language, political ideology, religious philosophies an geography.  The new 
Asia, he believes, will be forged by economic integration, technology--in 
particular telecommunications--and intra-Asia mobility.
     The eight big sociological shifts listed in Megatrends Asia focus on 
an evolution--of networks from nation states; of a consumer-driven economy 
from an export-led economy; of Asian values from Western values; of market-
driven trade from government-controlled trade; of supercities from 
villages; of high-tech industries from labour-intensive industries; of 
women as a societal force from the traditional male-dominated society; and 
the shifting of the global axis of influence from the West to the East.
     "What's happening in Asia is by far the most important development in 
the world today.  Nothing else comes close," says Naisbitt .  "The 
economic growth of Asia will drive the global economy to the benefit 
of all as we move through the balance of this century.  The Moder-
nisation of Asia--as opposed to the westernisation of Asia--will reshape 
the world as we move towards the next millennium."
     But Naisbitt is more than rhetoric.  He's well grounded in his 
knowledge of the region, and his book is well researched and backed up with 
credible examples and statistics.
     A political scientist by training, Naisbitt first came to Asia in 1967 
as advisor to the Thai government on accelerating agricultural growth in 
the northeastern part of Thailand.  Since then, he has been a regular visi-
tor, well regarded by various Asian governments.  Malaysia's think tank, 
the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, has made him a 
Distinguished International Fellow of the institute.
     Reflecting on his first impressions of the region, Naisbitt says:  
"Thirty years ago, Thailand was what you'd call the third world in the old 
vocabulary.  Just look at how far Bangkok has come today."
     And as the region has grown, so have the people.  "Asians are today 
much more assertive and confident.  After years of playing second-fiddle 
to the West, they now have a real sense of self and a sense of destiny," 
he notes.
     Naisbitt says it is the new Asians--primarily the overseas Chinese 
entrepreneurs--who will drive and fuel the growth or the region.  He's put 
his money squarely on the increasing trade links between overseas Chinese 
and the hitherto slumbering dragon, China, as the key to Asia's future 
prosperity.
     "The metaphor for the overseas Chinese network is the Internet," he 
points out.  "Like the 'Net, the overseas Chinese network is totally 
decentralised; no one is in charge, everyone is at the centre.  People 
operate out off self-interest and cooperate with each other with the aim 
to mutually profit.
     "When I'm on the Internet in my mountain home in Tellurid, Colorado, 
I experience being in the centre of the 'Net.  What is so powerful about 
the Internet is that each of the 50 million people experience the same 
thing.  Similarly that's what makes the 57 million overseas Chinese (54 
million of whom are in Asia) network so powerful."
     No discussion on Asia today would be complete without the controver-
sial debate over Asian values--a topic described by many Western opinion-
makers as a "red herring" or "fire blanket" or issues such as democracy and 
human rights.  Naisbitt injects his perspective:  "Hearing the debate over 
Asian values reminds me of the worlds of Marshall McLuhan, a famous Cana-
dian sociologist.  He said he did not know who discovered water but he was 
sure it was not a fish.  When you're on the inside, you can't see the 
forest for the trees.
     "Looking from the outside, it's so clear to me what Asian values are:  
they're about family, hard work, thrift, and the importance of a good edu-
cation for the children.  That's not radically different from the West and 
elsewhere."
     The difference, he notes, lies in the execution.  "People live their 
beliefs and values in different ways, to different intensities, and they 
have different fidelities to their values.  Asians truly live family 
values."
     In Naisbitt's opinion, the welfare state in the West has gone a long 
way toward undermining qualities such as hard work, self reliance, and 
personal and family responsibilities.  "That's an unintended consequence.  
Asians now have a model that the West never had; so they can learn from 
it," he adds.
     "Some politicians do raise Asian values as a blanket to shut up 
debate on issues such as democracy, human rights and so on.  But the point 
is, democracy is not a neat product that you buy or don't buy.  It is a 
process that involves everyone.  You can't rush it; it has a life and speed 
of development of its own and that differs from country to country."
     Naisbitt observes that Asia is moving from traditions to options.  
"The more Asian value are challenged by change, the more Asians are 
learning about what those values are and what they mean."
     Interestingly, Naisbitt does not count Japan as an Asian country.  
("It's part of the G7 yet it is not part of the West; it's in a class by 
itself.")  He argues that Japan's economic dominance has peaked and unless 
it reinvents itself, the country is heading on a downward slide.
     "What Japan has achieved is unbelievable.  But the world has changed, 
and so has Japan, which is currently in a spiritual crisis.  The generation 
that built the economy of Japan is now retiring.  They worked hard and were 
extremely dedicated.  Unfortunately, their successors are mere caretakers 
who are not willing to take risks.  The world has since gone on; the young 
generation have different values, they are not willing to sacrifice their 
lives on the altar of commerce."
     It's clear that Megatrends Asia is written for a Western audience.  
Says Naisbitt:  "The majority of people in the West don't have a clue about 
what's going on in Asia.  Indeed, there are far greater numbers of people 
in positions of power and influence in Asia who know about the West than 
there are in the West who know about the East."
     But for all that, Naisbitt maintains that he wrote the book from an 
Asian point of view.
     "After working to get a sense of how Asians feel and think, I some-
times feel I've become Chinese.  Indeed, in the process of studying global 
trends and changes, I've become a free-floating citizen of the world.  
After all, when you come to think of it, people are more similar than they 
are different.  But we tend to focus on the differences because they're 
more interesting."